TdF 2013 Week 3 preview

Stage 14 Wrap
Yay, a Jensie breakaway!  Sadly he got dropped, but the 18 man break still make it to the finish line (down to 14) and made 7+ minutes on the GC leaders.  Included in that break was Tejay, finally getting some camera time, and Andrew Talansky.  His 7 minutes pulled him up to 12th overall, which is nothing to sneeze at.  It was pretty clear that no one up front was a big threat, and the bug guns were saving their legs for tomorrow.  Speaking of tomorrow...

Week 3 Preview

Ahh, the final week.  The coup de grace.  The last act.  The final episode of Lost, except without all the disappointment.  The Alps!

Stage 15
Well, let's not waste any time acquainting the riders with the serious mountains of week 3.

In the words of ET, "ouch"

This 222 km stage, which undulates but it relatively flat, ends with the climb to Mont Ventoux.  A 20 km climb, with average gradient of 7.5%.  And take a look along the bottom of the chart above... plenty of sections of 10%+, and the final 2km at 9.5%.  I can see the peleton getting to the bottom of this climb still relatively together, but Mont Ventoux will be the liquid nitrogen and the hammer.  With the rest day following, the climbers will be going all out, and there will be a lot of attacks.  Can anyone pull away from Froome though?  I'm saying with a relatively comfortable lead and week still to go, he won't execute the death blow to the field just yet, and we'll see another fine climb by the likes of Nairo Quintana or Pierre Roland.  Then again, if a team puts the hurt on Sky again (less likely here), you'll see attack from the top GC contenders to test Froome.

Rest day!

Stage 16

A bit more medium mountains, Stage 16 will be the lead in to the stages the TdF organizers and fans have been drooling about.  Certainly some hard climbs, but maybe not big enough to drop Sagan.

Stage 16

I picture a fairly large group finish, but with most of the sprinters dropped.  The best of the rest to win, no time change in the GC top 10.

Stage 17

A 32km TT, last of the Tour, but much different from the first one.  This TT actually has 2 fairly significant climbs, and will be much less favorable to the classic TT style of Tony Martin.  It's no Vail TT, in my opinion, but will suit Froome well (what doesn't suit him?).  It could also be a chance for Alejandro Valverde, who lost 2 minutes in the first TT, to compete with Froome.  There will definitely be some big time gaps here, but probably of the duration one could make up on the next 2.

Stage 18

The winner of this stage will be telling their grandchildren about it.  "Hm, how should we celebrate the 100th anniversary of Le Tour," I imagine someone asking in the planning meeting (use your worst French accent).  "I know!  Let's take one of the most famous, most evil ascents in the world... and do it TWICE.  Oui!"

Alpe D'Huez x 2?

If you are not familiar with the Alpe D'Huez, check out the wiki entry.  Honestly, on paper it doesn't look as bad as Mont Ventoux, but it's the way it does it.  The 21 hairpins.  The 10% right off the bat.  The 11.5% before the false flat at the top.  I've also heard that the Cat 2 right after the first summit is steeper, but shorter (hence the cat 2), and that the descent is super sketchy.  And the fans will be so in the rider's grills

Sometimes you have to make room...

I'm actually curious, given the harshness of the stage and the relative shortness, how firmly they'll enforce the time limit.  After kicking out Ted King, seems like they have to stick by the books, but what if Cav came in outside?  I don't think they'd let the Paris finish go off without him.

Stage 19

Really no rest for the wicked here.  Pretty tired after d'Huez?  Why don't you start the stage with 2 more back-to-back HC climbs.  The nature of this course should allow for a small regrouping after the early big climbs, but with two more Cat 1's to conclude, it could be a breakaway day.

Who will stay away?

The descent is short enough that a group over the top of the final Col de la Croix Fry could stay on for the win, even with as little as 30 seconds lead.  Also, French names are fun.  This is the stage I pick for Tommy Voeckler, but I'm sad that there's no Jensie stage in the works.  I think the mountains are bigger than he'd be looking for for a breakaway, but he did do it over Independence Pass last year so who knows.

Stage 20

The last time any changes can be made in the GC, but I suspect it'll be too late.  Then again, they're all (mostly) human, so they can blow up at any time.  This stage is very short, and ends up the HC Annecy-Semnoz.  It's 10.7km average 8.5%.  Someone will blow themselves up on this climb for a final shot at glory in 2013.

Short and sweet

I'm just shooting from the hip here, and going with my new hero, Andrew Talansky.  The thing that will really make this stage is if the King of the Mountains is still up for grab.

Stage 21

They have champage while riding their bikes, which is not officially recommended, but they deserve it for surviving the previous 3 weeks.  They'll spin in like a big happy family, but then it actually gets pretty serious in Paris.  Some people will attack while riding around the laps (last chance to get on TV), then they'll get caught.  Then Cavendish will win.  Unless, of course, he's been eliminated...

I've seen nothing to far to change my overall predictions, namely Froome in Yellow and Sagan in Green, but that one will be mostly set before week 3 hits.  The battle in the mountains will decide White between Quintana and Kwiatkowski.  And the KOM is too up in the air for me right now, but I think Pierre Roland is planning on protecting his Polka Dots.

So, that's about that.  So it's time to sit back and watch people with enormous quads put themselves through immense pain for some cash and glory.  I, for one, can't wait!

Parting Thought: The Tour of Austria happened.  It was won by Riccardo Zoidl, a guy I've never heard of from a team I've never heard of.  My boy Joe Dombrowski had a decent ride, however, wearing the White jersey there for 1 stage.  Poor Austria, I'm sure they deserve better than to take place during the TdF.