Sunday, June 30, 2013

Stage 2: So close

Props to Jans Bakelants, who did was so few do, and held off the peloton as the closed in behind him with mere meters to go.  It's a story you see a lot in cycling, and it seemed almost inevitable that the peloton would catch him with 50 meters to go, and do the sprint "properly".  But not this time.  Bakelants takes the Yellow, and it's possible he'll hold this through the week.
Shock, weariness, glory... and a cyan bike
Side story 1: Almost called it, Peter Sagan was the only "top" sprinter with the legs to make it over the 4 classified climbs with the bunch.  Cav is now 17:35 down and Greipel is 12:44...
Side story 2: Cav and some others whined about the end of the first stage, and wanted the sprint points to be taken off the board (since, you know, he didn't get any of them).  As it stands, Kittel keeps the Green, Sagan moves in to 2nd in points, and Cav is 30 points down.

Bakelants in yellow, Kittel in green, Pierre Roland (one of the Europcar mountain goats) has the polka dot, Michal Kwiatkowski has the young rider's white.  Bakelants also helped RadioShack-Leopard-Trek take the team classification for the time being.

Parting Thought: Would you trade all of your tomorrows for just one yesterday?

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Stage 1: The Wheels on the Bus

W.
T.
F.

Well, that was sure interesting.  The first week of the Tour is usually filled with crashes, due to nerves, excitement, settling in to the race, etc.  And indeed, Chris Froome curb-checked and hit the dirt before he even finished saying "I'm Chris Froome, b*tches".  There were a handful of other minor incidents during the course of the day as well, but the real excitement didn't occur until the end of the race.  The Orica-Greenedge team bus got lodged under the finish banner and time board.
If the driver can't see anybody, then nobody can see him, right?
This resulted in the race organizers moving the finish up 3km, which was radioed to all the riders with about 10km to go.  And they FREAKED OUT MAN.  Panic, regroup, and then the big crash.  Tony Martin appears to have gotten the worst of it, including concussion, lung contusion, "soft tissue damage" pretty much everywhere, and a wound down the muscle on his left elbow (he is still, however, considering continuing the Tour at this point... see my overview).  And oh, poor Johnny Hoogerland.  Apparently by blog appeal to the cycling gods on his behalf failed, and he was caught in another crash.
Get up and ride!
But the big news is that this craziness took away the chance to win from pretty much all the major players.  Sagan hit the ground, Cav and Greipel got stuck behind.  The good news for everybody: They were ALL within 3km of the new finish line.  The good news for Marcel Kittlel:  his road was cleared for victory.  And though he didn't have to contend with the aforementioned sprinters, he did a brilliant job coming from 4th wheel, catching a quick draft, going wide left and straight up outsprinting the other who were there.  For his efforts he technically holds the Yellow, Green and White jerseys.  He's gonna go ahead and stick with the Yellow for tomorrow.
#winning
Parting thought: On a scale of 1 to awesome, I'm the s*t

Friday, June 28, 2013

TdF 2013: Riders and predictions

Here is the more compact version of my rider summary, and my predictions.  For the one that's way too long and you won't want to read, head here.

First of all, here's some riders to pay attention to:
Mark Cavendish (Omega Pharma Quick-Step)The dude.  23 TdF stage wins, 41 Grand Tour stage wins, over 100 total wins.  Why can't I bring myself to like him?  Oh, maybe it's because he sucks if there's a hill.
Alberto Contador (Saxo-Tinkoff)The disgraced former TdF winner is back.  And he was definitely training while he was banned.  After voiding all results from July 2010 - February 2012, he got in the late-season Vuelta and won it last year.  His 10th place in the Dauphine is a little underwhelming, but he's second best odds to win at 11:4.
Damiano Cunego (Lampre-Merida)Another climber, he won the Mountains classification earlier this year at the heinously steep and snowy Tirreno-Adriatico.
Cadel Evans (BMC)A strong showing and a 3rd place at this year's Giro, but last time he did a Giro-Tour double he faded a bit and ended up 26th in the Tour.  Though he won it the next year.  Can't see him beating Froome on a hillclimb or a TT, which won him the Tour 2 years ago, but he's strong enough to hang around the whole time and end up on the podium.
Chris Froome (Sky)I'm Chris Froome, b*tches.  At least that what I imagine he says every time he's gotten on a bike this year.  He's owned the pro circuit this year and is the prohibitive favorite this year at 4:5.  Yeah, less than 1...
Robert Gesink (Belkin) - Won the Tour of California last year on one a classic of an uphill finish on Mount Baldy.  No great results this year, but can tear it up a mountain any time.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) The only guy who has shown some consistency in holding with Cav in a straight-up sprint.  He actually looks pretty happy when he's not sprinting, but man he makes some mean faces.  And his Quads have their own zip code.
Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) - This Canadian won the Giro last year.  He's their top option for GC
Bauke Mollema (Belkin) - Tagged as their GC contender this year, he's coming off a great TdSuisse.  I likes his form  there and look at him as an outside (maybe way outside) podium contender.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) - The 23 year old wore the White for a while before Tejay took it off his back, and even won stage 8 in a breakaway.  He's still in the young rider category, but has graduated to be his team GC lead.  He's feisty, and full of that youthful energy.
Richie Porte (Sky)One of the greatest threats to Chris Froome, his own teammate.  He's kept up with him on almost every major stage so far.  Can Sky go 1-2 again this year?
Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) - The mainstay of Katusha, he was the #1 ranked UCI rider in 2012.  Biggest result this year is a 2nd in Liege-Bastogne-Liege.  Oddsmakers have him with 3rd best odds, at 20:1, but I just don't see a podium in his future.
Peter Sagan (Cannondale) - Defending sprint jersey winner.  Strengths: Descending, sprinting (especially in hard-to-navigate finishes), climbs better than most sprinters.  He will end this thing with one or more stage wins (13 already on the year), and he's fun to watch. 
Andy Schleck (RadioShack-Trek)Despite not looking spectacular this year, the former winner (by Contador's ban) and multi-time 2nd placer is the team's leader this year.  The team owner even said they don't expect a podium, but if he can find his old form he's dangerous (but better win big in the mountains, because his TT is terrible)
Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) - He's finished 11th in the Tour before, but probably won't get that high this year.  He was one of my original picks to wear the Yellow most of the first week before I decided to go with Thibaut Pinot.
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)Strong GC guy and riding well, officially their top man for the Tour.  I liked watching him attack last year, look forward to it again.  I could see him on the podium.
Tejay VanGarderen (BMC) - After a dominating Tour of Cali, I was curious to see if he would move up and be BMC's guy for the Tour, especially with Cadel already having ridden the Giro.  But after a slightly disappointing TdSuisse, he's working for Cadel and maybe the White jersey.  But if Cadel slips up, don't be surprised if Tejay pounces and is the team lead at the end.
Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) - A very experienced guy, familiar with having the Yellow on his back.  He will attack, he will somehow keep climbing when he looks like he's about to fall over, and he could certainly win a stage.
Jens Voigt (RadioShack-Trek) The oldest dude out there at 41 years of age, he's a crowd favorite.  He's not the best at any discipline, but he's a machine, and he may be the smartest guy on the course.  He'll be looking for a breakaway to take advantage of and solo to victory.

Predictions
Overall:
  1) Chris Froome - can't pick against him
  2) Alejandro Valverde
  3) Alberto Contador Richie Porte  (I really can't make up my mind...)
Dark horses: Tejay, Bauke, Thibaut

Point classification: Peter Sagan
Mountains classification: Nairo Quintana.  (To be honest, it's a bad idea to pick a Movistar rider since I'm expecting Valverde to do well, but the Columbian riders are beasts in the mountains.)
(UPDATE - I forgot White): Youth classification: Thibaut Pinot.  At least if Cadel is in form and Tejay is working for him rather than racing for himself.  Tejay is Cadel falls off in the first 12 stages.

Parting thought: We're up all night til the sun, we're up all night to get some, we're up all night for good fun, we're up all night to get lucky. (Because it won't leave my head)

TdF 2013: The Riders and Teams

The Way, Way Too Long Version
Herein lies my overview of the teams and riders of import this year.  The riders I pick out below each team are the ones I think will stand out in some way this year.  For the shorter version, and predictions, click here.

Team Katusha jerseyKatusha
Team tidbit: "The Russian Global Cycling Project", started by a team of Russian businessmen to promote the sport in Russia, Russian form of the name "Kathy" or "Katie" (according to wikipedia... and who am I to doubt wikipedia)
This team is still fuming a little bit from the little UCI World Tour ranking snub at the beginning of the year (whatever the UCI says, I'm going to believe it was because someone pissed someone else off and the governing body is corrupt).  They'll want to prove their worth here.
Joaquin Rodriguez - The mainstay of Katusha, he was the #1 ranked UCI rider in 2012.  Biggest result this year is a 2nd in Liege-Bastogne-Liege.  Oddsmakers have him with 3rd best odds, at 20:1, but I just don't see a podium in his future.
Daniel Moreno - The only other Katusha of interest to me.  Good results at a couple races this year, capable of taking a big mountain stage, but will mostly be working for Rodriguez.

Ag2r-La Mondiale jersey

AG2R La Mondiale
Team tidbit: AG2R is a French insurance/retirement fund company, La Mondiale is a French pension and estate planning company.  So, hopefully their riders are well prepared for retirement.
All French team.  Honestly, the only person I'm even familiar with is Maxime Bouet.  They don't come with a General Classification (GC) guy, but will try to steal a stage win where they can, and they are always in the breakaway.  Get familiar with this jersey.

Astana (cycling team) jerseyAstana
Team tidbit: Astana is a coalition of state-owned companies in Kazakhstan.
They definitely have some riders who can do some damage, but they're not as intimidating since their BMOC Alberto Contador left in 2011.
Janez Brajkovic - 9th overall in the TdF last year, won the 2010 Criterium du Dauphine.  Likes climbs and TT, but isn't generally tops at either.  Would need some things to go his way for a podium.
Jakob Fuglsang - Former Danish TT champion, has some GC wins on his resume.

Belkin
Team tidbit: Recently retitled from Blanco, the name they adopted after Rabobank pulled sponsorship among the drug scandal.
Belkin I think is actually pretty loaded with guys who can steal some stage wins, and you should also see them in some breakaways.  Some interesting riders are Lars Boom, Bram Tankink and Lauren Ten Dam.
Robert Gesink - Won the Tour of California last year on one a classic of an uphill finish on Mount Baldy.  No great results this year, but can tear it up a mountain any time.
Bauke Mollema - Tagged as their GC contender this year, he's coming off a great TdSuisse.  I likes his form  there and look at him as an outside (maybe way outside) podium contender.


BMC Racing Team jerseyBMC
Team tidbit: I waited outside their trailer for a while at the first USAPCC.  And waited.  Then I went around and found lots of other riders and bikes to take pictures of.  Maybe they're too cool for that.
BMC has a definite chance to put someone on the podium, but will it be their team leader?
Cadel Evans - A strong showing and a 3rd place at this year's Giro, but last time he did a Giro-Tour double he faded a bit and ended up 26th in the Tour.  Though he won it the next year.  Can't see him beating Froome on a hillclimb or a TT, which won him the Tour 2 years ago, but he's strong enough to hang around the whole time and end up on the podium.
Phillipe Gilbert - I like Phillipe.  I call him PhilGil because we're that close.  Actually, I don't.  World champ last year, some good showings this year but no victories.  Highest tour finish is 38th, and he won't best that this year working for Cadel or Tejay, but could surprise on the second ITT.
Tejay VanGarderen - After a dominating Tour of Cali, I was curious to see if he would move up and be BMC's guy for the Tour, especially with Cadel already having ridden the Giro.  But after a slightly disappointing TdSuisse, he's working for Cadel and maybe the White jersey.  But if Cadel slips up, don't be surprised if Tejay pounces and is the team lead at the end.

Cannondale
Team tidbit: Ooh, bright green.
OK, so I don't have a good tidbit for them, except that it's hard to tell their green jersey from THE Green jersey sometimes.  And I expect that to be a problem for much of this race.
Moreno Moser - He's actually a halfway decent all-rounder, but Cannondale has stated they are here for pretty much one reason:  Getting this next guy the Green
Peter Sagan - Defending sprint jersey winner.  Strengths: Descending, sprinting (especially in hard-to-navigate finishes), climbs better than most sprinters.  He will end this thing with one or more stage wins (13 already on the year), and he's fun to watch.  I'm even putting him here instead of just a pic of the Cannondale jersey.  Boom.

Cofidis (cycling team) jerseyCofidis
Team tidbit: Sponsored by a money-lender.  Hope they don't ask for that sponsorship money back...
Cofidis is an invited, France-based team (UCI Professional Continental level, not World Tour) with a great Estonian rider.  Daniel Navarro could be interesting, but I'm really just watching them for
Rein Taaramae - He's finished 11th in the Tour before, but probably won't get that high this year.  He was one of my original picks to wear the Yellow most of the first week before I decided to go with Thibaut Pinot.


Team Europcar jerseyEuropcar
Team tidbit: Europcar is the 5th team name in their 13 year history.
Another French invite team, they always seem to have success.  Perhaps because they mainly race in France.  Almost entirely French, but have one of the very few Japanese riders on the pro circuit, Yukiya Arashiro.
Pierre Roland - Climb, climb, climb.  That's I guess what the French do, and Pierre is no exception.
David Veilleux - Soloed to victory on hilly stage 1 of this year's Criterium du Dauphine.  Climbey, climbey.
Thomas Voeckler - A very experience guy, familiar with having the Yellow on his back.  He will attack, he will somehow keep climbing when he looks like he's about to fall over, and he could certainly win a stage.

Euskaltel Euskadi
Team tidbit: It's a Spanish team with 1 French rider, partially funded by the Basque government.
They've had some stars on their team, including Sammy Sanchez and Haimar Zubeldia, but they've left.  And I honestly don't know a thing about the guys they're bringing to the Tour.  That usually means you'll see them in the breakaways.

FDJ (cycling team) jerseyFDJ
Team tidbit:  FDJ is the French national lottery (Francaise des Jeux).  How cool is that?
FDJ has the current French road champion in Arthur Vichot, and a sprinter in Nacer Bouhanni, but I don't expect too much from either of them (Nacer did win a stage of Paris-Nice this year).  Their problem is they actually planned a leadout train for Bouhanni and domestiques for Pinot.  Which probably will leave both of them wanting.
Thibaut Pinot - The 23 year old wore the White for a while before Tejay took it off his back, and even won stage 8 in a breakaway.  He's still in the young rider category, but has graduated to be his team GC lead.  He's feisty, and full of that youthful energy.

Garmin-Sharp jerseyGarmin-Sharp
Team tidbit: LOCAL TEAM!
I don't know where they officially say they're from at the moment, but they're a Boulder team with a lot of good Americans.
Ryder Hesjedal - This Canadian won the Giro last year.  He's their top option for GC
Thomas Danielson - Tommy D is a veteran with some kick left in him, but he'll be riding in support.
David Millar - TT specialist.  That is all.
Andrew Talansky - The young American everyone is pretty excited about, and made one of the best moments of the Criterium du Dauphine where he snuck up on Froome and almost stole 2nd place on a truly awful climb.  Also 2nd overall in Paris-Nice this year.  Not their top runner for GC, but could be up there.
Christian VandeVelde - The old guy won the USAPCC last year.  He'll be support, but you still want to keep your eye on him.


Marcel Kittel, 2013 Tour Down Under.jpgArgos-Shimano
Team tidbit: Marcel Kittel has cool hair.
He also sprints, but probably won't challenge Cav/Greipel/Sagan.  The team has basically been given the greenlight for getting in breakaways as they see fit.
John Degenkolb - Capable sprinter, won 5 stages of last year's Vuelta (but that race didn't have the top guys).





Lampre-Merida jerseyLampre-Merida
Team tidbit: Have been in existence in some form since 1991!  Also, we rode with a couple in Switzerland who wore matching jerseys everyday, and Lampre was one of them.
Damiano Cunego - Another climber, he won the Mountains classification earlier this year at the heinously steep and snowy Tirreno-Adriatico.


Lotto-Belisol
Team tidbit: Belgian state lottery + a window and door manufacturer = angry German sprinter.
Andre Greipel - The only guy who has shown some consistency in holding with Cav in a straight-up spring.  He actually looks pretty happy when he's not sprinting, but man he makes some faces.  And his Quads have their own zip code.
Jurgen Van Den Broeck - He'll be going for stage wins the days Greipel will be out of it.  A very capable climber, not too many top 3s lately.


Movistar Team jerseyMovistar
Team tidbit: Best names of the race.  Take, for example, Andrey Amador Bakkazakova, Jonathan Castroviejo Nicolas, Jose Ivan Gutierrez Palacios, and Nairo Alexander Quitana Rojas.  Gotta love it.
Rui Costa - Fresh off a repeat victory at TdSuisse, he's an all-rounder who snatched it in the TT.
Nairo Quintana - One of those tough Columbian climbers.  He's a goat, he'll tear it up some mountain stage this Tour.
Alejandro Valverde - Strong GC guy and riding well, officially their top man for the Tour.  I liked watching him attack last year, look forward to it again.  I could see him on the podium.

Orica-GreenEDGE jerseyOrica Greenedge
Team tidbit: Over 50% Australian.  Crocodile Dundee would be disappointed.
This team is aiming to get a stage win somewhere, no overall threat.
Michael Albasini - Won a stage of Paris-Nice this year, their man of the mountains.
Matt Goss - "Watch out for Matt Goss," they always say.  But he's yet to actually outsprint someone of import.
Cameron Meyer - Also pegged for trying to take a mountains stage, held the leader's jersey for a few days at TdSuisse, and defended it well.
Stuart O'Grady - Tying the record for most TdF starts this year with 17.


Omega Pharma-Quick Step jerseyOmega Pharma-Quick-Step
Team tidbit: Cav is from the Isle of Man.  Which apparently makes him a "manxman"
OPQ is about one thing: getting Cavendish stage wins.  And he's used to doing that in bunches.
Mark Cavendish - The dude.  23 TdF stage wins, 41 Grand Tour stage wins, over 100 total wins.  Why can't I bring myself to like him?  Oh, maybe it's because he sucks if there's a hill.
Sylvain Chavanel - French TT champion, and loves the breakaways.  You'll see him up front more than once, but will it translate to a stage win?
Tony Martin - German TT champion and TT rockstar (a couple world titles).  He will be a threat, especially on the first ITT in stage 11.
Peter Velits - The Slovak TT champion?  What's with this team.  Well, he won't do much here, but I like him.


RadioShack-Leopard jerseyRadioShack Leopard
Team tidbit: The RadioShack team name carousel continues (Leopard-Trek + Team RadioShack, RadioShack-Nissan-Trek, RadioShack-Leopard-Trek), and it sounds like Trek will break off their own title team next year hoping to retain most of the RSL riders.
Andy Schleck - Despite not looking spectacular this year, the former winner (by Contador's ban) and multi-time 2nd placer is the team's leader this year.  The team owner even said they don't expect a podium, but if he can find his old form he's dangerous (but better win big in the mountains, because his TT is terrible)
Jens Voigt - The oldest dude out there at 41 years of age, he's a crowd favorite.  He's not the best at any discipline, but he's a machine, and he may be the smartest guy on the course.  He'll be looking for a breakaway to take advantage of and solo to victory.
Haimar Zubeldia - Their top-placed man last year, this climber will try to lead Andy up the mountains.  If Andy falters, Haimar will look for another top 10 overall.

Team Sky jerseySky
Team tidbit: Started the team with a zero-tolerance approach to doping in 2010, before the whole thing really exploded.
Chris Froome - I'm Chris Froome, b*tches.  At least that what I imagine he says every time he's gotten on a bike this year.  He's owned the pro circuit this year and is the prohibitive favorite this year at 4:5.  Yeah, less than 1...
Edvald Boassen Hagen - This TT/Sprinter has won either the Norwegian TT or road race championship each of the last 7 years.
Richie Porte - One of the greatest threats to Chris Froome, his own teammate.  He's kept up with him on almost every major stage so far.  Can Sky go 1-2 again this year?


Sojasun
Team tidbit:  No idea, but they're French.

Team Saxo-Tinkoff jerseySaxo-Tinkoff
Team tidbit: A Danish bank and a Russian bank.  See, we can all get along.
This team is fully committed to getting Contador on top of the podium in 3 weeks.
Alberto Contador - The disgraced former TdF winner is back.  And he was definitely training while he was banned.  After voiding all results from July 2010 - February 2012, he got in the late-season Vuelta and won it last year.  His 10th place in the Dauphine is a little underwhelming, but he's second best odds to win at 11:4
Roman Kreuziger - All around guy, if given the chance he'd get up in some breakaways, but he will work for Contador.
Michael Rogers - Mick is another all-rounder.  Along with Kreuziger and Nicolas Roche, it's clear Saxo isn't really looking for stage wins, and these guys will be giving up some personal aspirations.


Vacansoleil-DCM jerseyVacansoleil-DCM
Team tidbit: This team is done (in it's current form) past this year, as Vacansoleil is pulling their sponsorship.
Thomas De Gendt - Their top GC contender, it's hard to say how much they'll work for him, and how much the other riders will go in search of stage wins.
Johnny Hoogerland - Included him in my list because he deserves something.  He's the dude that got knocked off the road by a car in to a barbed wire fence in the TdF.  He completed that stage.  He also got hit by a car earlier this year, and is just getting back in to form.  I'm sure a mention on my blog will make all the pain go away.
Lieuwe Westra - Dutch TT champion and winner of a stage in this year's Tour of Cali.  I like his name.

Parting thought: Did I actually just write that much?  Will anybody read all the way to the bottom?  Who was that man?  I'd like to shake his hand.