First of all, here's some riders to pay attention to:
Mark Cavendish (Omega Pharma Quick-Step) - The dude. 23 TdF stage wins, 41 Grand Tour stage wins, over 100 total wins. Why can't I bring myself to like him? Oh, maybe it's because he sucks if there's a hill.
Alberto Contador (Saxo-Tinkoff) - The disgraced former TdF winner is back. And he was definitely training while he was banned. After voiding all results from July 2010 - February 2012, he got in the late-season Vuelta and won it last year. His 10th place in the Dauphine is a little underwhelming, but he's second best odds to win at 11:4.
Damiano Cunego (Lampre-Merida) - Another climber, he won the Mountains classification earlier this year at the heinously steep and snowy Tirreno-Adriatico.
Cadel Evans (BMC) - A strong showing and a 3rd place at this year's Giro, but last time he did a Giro-Tour double he faded a bit and ended up 26th in the Tour. Though he won it the next year. Can't see him beating Froome on a hillclimb or a TT, which won him the Tour 2 years ago, but he's strong enough to hang around the whole time and end up on the podium.
Chris Froome (Sky) - I'm Chris Froome, b*tches. At least that what I imagine he says every time he's gotten on a bike this year. He's owned the pro circuit this year and is the prohibitive favorite this year at 4:5. Yeah, less than 1...
Robert Gesink (Belkin) - Won the Tour of California last year on one a classic of an uphill finish on Mount Baldy. No great results this year, but can tear it up a mountain any time.
Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) - The only guy who has shown some consistency in holding with Cav in a straight-up sprint. He actually looks pretty happy when he's not sprinting, but man he makes some mean faces. And his Quads have their own zip code.
Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) - This Canadian won the Giro last year. He's their top option for GC
Bauke Mollema (Belkin) - Tagged as their GC contender this year, he's coming off a great TdSuisse. I likes his form there and look at him as an outside (maybe way outside) podium contender.
Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) - The 23 year old wore the White for a while before Tejay took it off his back, and even won stage 8 in a breakaway. He's still in the young rider category, but has graduated to be his team GC lead. He's feisty, and full of that youthful energy.
Richie Porte (Sky) - One of the greatest threats to Chris Froome, his own teammate. He's kept up with him on almost every major stage so far. Can Sky go 1-2 again this year?
Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) - The mainstay of Katusha, he was the #1 ranked UCI rider in 2012. Biggest result this year is a 2nd in Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Oddsmakers have him with 3rd best odds, at 20:1, but I just don't see a podium in his future.
Peter Sagan (Cannondale) - Defending sprint jersey winner. Strengths: Descending, sprinting (especially in hard-to-navigate finishes), climbs better than most sprinters. He will end this thing with one or more stage wins (13 already on the year), and he's fun to watch.
Andy Schleck (RadioShack-Trek) - Despite not looking spectacular this year, the former winner (by Contador's ban) and multi-time 2nd placer is the team's leader this year. The team owner even said they don't expect a podium, but if he can find his old form he's dangerous (but better win big in the mountains, because his TT is terrible)
Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) - He's finished 11th in the Tour before, but probably won't get that high this year. He was one of my original picks to wear the Yellow most of the first week before I decided to go with Thibaut Pinot.
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) - Strong GC guy and riding well, officially their top man for the Tour. I liked watching him attack last year, look forward to it again. I could see him on the podium.
Tejay VanGarderen (BMC) - After a dominating Tour of Cali, I was curious to see if he would move up and be BMC's guy for the Tour, especially with Cadel already having ridden the Giro. But after a slightly disappointing TdSuisse, he's working for Cadel and maybe the White jersey. But if Cadel slips up, don't be surprised if Tejay pounces and is the team lead at the end.
Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) - A very experienced guy, familiar with having the Yellow on his back. He will attack, he will somehow keep climbing when he looks like he's about to fall over, and he could certainly win a stage.
Jens Voigt (RadioShack-Trek) - The oldest dude out there at 41 years of age, he's a crowd favorite. He's not the best at any discipline, but he's a machine, and he may be the smartest guy on the course. He'll be looking for a breakaway to take advantage of and solo to victory.
Predictions
Overall:
1) Chris Froome - can't pick against him
2) Alejandro Valverde
3)
Dark horses: Tejay, Bauke, Thibaut
Point classification: Peter Sagan
Mountains classification: Nairo Quintana. (To be honest, it's a bad idea to pick a Movistar rider since I'm expecting Valverde to do well, but the Columbian riders are beasts in the mountains.)
(UPDATE - I forgot White): Youth classification: Thibaut Pinot. At least if Cadel is in form and Tejay is working for him rather than racing for himself. Tejay is Cadel falls off in the first 12 stages.
Parting thought: We're up all night til the sun, we're up all night to get some, we're up all night for good fun, we're up all night to get lucky. (Because it won't leave my head)
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