My predictions for week one of the Tour de France 2013!
The Tour de France is an epic cycling race that every year tries to kill 198 of the world's best cyclists. It's not really more epic than the Giro D'Italia or the Vuelta a Espana, as far as punishing its riders goes, but it's THE ONE. Riders will cry openly when completing some of its stages, but it's much bigger heartbreak to have to drop out. They really, REALLY want this pain.
That said, the fun doesn't really start until later in week 2 when they hit the Pyrenees. They start this year, for the first time ever, on the island of Corsica.
Note: All course images janked from http://www.letour.fr
Stage 1:
There is no prologue, but stage one should serve the same purpose: namely, giving someone the yellow jersey. Don't expect anyone to have an actual time lead after this stage, even though there's a cat 4 climb, it's flat and is designed to be a sprint finish. The early break away will NOT stay away.
 |
| Stage 1 |
Stage 2:
Stage 2 stays in Corsica, and actually presents a chance for separation pretty early in the TdF. Even with the long downhill finish, I think Cav will be bringing up the rear. This could be a prime stage for Sagan, since he holds his own climbing, and is a terrific descender. If he gets dropped on the Col de Vizzavona, he's got all sorts of time to catch up.
This is a possible breakaway day, but I'm going with Sagan winning the stage and wearing the yellow jersey for 1 day.
Stage 3:
Even though stage 2 looks harder, the constant rollers and shorter distance to the finish after the last climb make me think this is where the first breakaway of the tour might succeed. At least that's what I'm rooting for, because it's either that or a group sprint.
Since I'm a gambling man, I'm going to say the breakaway wins, and the winner of this stage is a minor player with no overall aspirations. That said, the winner of this stage WILL hold the yellow jersey for the rest of the week. I'm giving it to Jens Voigt, because he's my cyclist BF, but it might be a bit early in the tour for him to attack, so my backup answer is Thibaut Pinot (update!). Young kid, rode hard last year, deserves to wear yellow for a couple days.
Stage 4:
Off the island! Time for the Team Time Trial. This is really an essentially meaningless stage to the standings at the end of 3 weeks, but the time gaps after the 25km could be enough to upset the balance for the next several days. My pick is Team Sky, full of good TTers, and hungry to make sure Froome doesn't have to make up any more time than necessary in the mountains and ITT.
(Note on shorthand: numbers are categorized climbs, s = mid-stage sprint point)
Stage 5: 228 km, 3, 4, s, 4, 4
Stage 6: 176km, s, 4
Stage 7: 205km, 3, 2, s, 3, 4
I group these together, because even though it's a LOT of miles (daily average over 120), there's not enough mountains to lose the sprinters. Stage 5 has a descent and then flat section to the finish, Stage 6's final 100km are pancake flat, and Stage 7's last 30km is a slow descent which should allow everyone to regroup after the last 2 climbs. These should be excellent stages, however, for Sagan to pick up sprint points at the midways by getting in a breakaway or two. Cav hasn't shown himself to be especially interested in them, though both Cannondale and OPQ have expressly said this tour is about the green jersey. Best bet for Sagan to pick up a stage win here in Stage 5, where a sharp turn could disrupt the peleton about 400 m before the finish in Marseille. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Cav with 3 wins by the end of the first week if he's riding like he was at the Giro.
Next week: The Pyrenees begin! And some of the meanest courses the TdF organizers have come up with lately. In between now and then I'll put up my rider summary, including some of my dark horses for being on the podium in Paris.
Parting Thought: Learn to ride a bicycle. You will not regret it if you live. ~Mark Twain
Stage 3:
Even though stage 2 looks harder, the constant rollers and shorter distance to the finish after the last climb make me think this is where the first breakaway of the tour might succeed. At least that's what I'm rooting for, because it's either that or a group sprint.
Stage 4:
Off the island! Time for the Team Time Trial. This is really an essentially meaningless stage to the standings at the end of 3 weeks, but the time gaps after the 25km could be enough to upset the balance for the next several days. My pick is Team Sky, full of good TTers, and hungry to make sure Froome doesn't have to make up any more time than necessary in the mountains and ITT.
(Note on shorthand: numbers are categorized climbs, s = mid-stage sprint point)
Stage 5: 228 km, 3, 4, s, 4, 4
Stage 6: 176km, s, 4
Stage 7: 205km, 3, 2, s, 3, 4
I group these together, because even though it's a LOT of miles (daily average over 120), there's not enough mountains to lose the sprinters. Stage 5 has a descent and then flat section to the finish, Stage 6's final 100km are pancake flat, and Stage 7's last 30km is a slow descent which should allow everyone to regroup after the last 2 climbs. These should be excellent stages, however, for Sagan to pick up sprint points at the midways by getting in a breakaway or two. Cav hasn't shown himself to be especially interested in them, though both Cannondale and OPQ have expressly said this tour is about the green jersey. Best bet for Sagan to pick up a stage win here in Stage 5, where a sharp turn could disrupt the peleton about 400 m before the finish in Marseille. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Cav with 3 wins by the end of the first week if he's riding like he was at the Giro.
Next week: The Pyrenees begin! And some of the meanest courses the TdF organizers have come up with lately. In between now and then I'll put up my rider summary, including some of my dark horses for being on the podium in Paris.
Parting Thought: Learn to ride a bicycle. You will not regret it if you live. ~Mark Twain
No comments:
Post a Comment